Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines the strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Network sunsetting is a major concern in the mobile industry, as many legacy applications still rely heavily on 3G and 2G networks. The challenges faced during the shutdown of 2G networks have prompted calls for better planning to avoid similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to deactivate 2G and 3G networks, particularly if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without external pressure to keep older technologies running, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out, and also free up valuable spectrum for the newer 4G and 5G networks.
While the early versions of 1G technology were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has continued to be used in some markets for over 40 years since it was first introduced in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is influenced by different factors in each market, which may not necessarily be tied to economic conditions or revenue generated.
Typically, 2G and 3G networks do not generate high profits, causing operators to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated technologies running or shut them down. While operators are usually not contractually obligated to maintain these services, they are hesitant to disconnect a significant number of customers.
As a result of this factor, there has been a rise in the creation of packages that allow older generation networks to coexist more affordably with 4G and 5G networks by sharing base stations or spectrum. Open RAN technology is utilized in some cases to facilitate this coexistence. More details on these packages will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and this trend is likely to continue for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, the extent of this variation is expected to be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunication companies are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G technology. They believe that a more organic and gradual development process should be implemented, allowing for obsolescence to occur naturally without the disruptions typically seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.
In order to account for the different sunset dates and the transition from 4G to 5G, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G becoming more prevalent around that time. The introduction of 5G is marked by the start of the bright red segment on the chart, with rollout expected to begin from 2019 onwards.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become well-known in the industry for its expertise in 5G, wireless technology, entertainment streaming, IoT, and recently, the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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