Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024 to 2040 outlines strategies for phasing out old cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, especially with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The complications of shutting down 2G networks have highlighted the need to avoid similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G technology in 2009, certain countries promptly discontinued their 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations running, telecom operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. Additionally, this allowed for the valuable spectrum to be reallocated for the newer 4G and upcoming 5G technologies.

While the early versions of 1G technology were quickly phased out due to demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, 2G has remained in certain markets for over forty years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is influenced by a variety of factors in different markets, which may not necessarily be tied to economic conditions or average revenue per user.

Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked to lower profits, leading some telecommunications companies to face a dilemma. They must decide between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the potential backlash from shutting them down. While many operators are not legally obligated to keep offering these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

This has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to coexist with 4G and 5G in a more affordable way, by sharing base stations or spectrum and utilizing Open RAN technology in some cases. More details on these solutions will be discussed later in the report.

Our research indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and this trend is expected to continue for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, the impact will be less significant as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.

In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the traditional 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.

Several operators are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G, preferring a more gradual and natural evolution that allows for obsolescence to happen without the disruptions seen during the transition from 2G.

In order to predict the timeline for the phasing out of older technologies and the introduction of newer ones, a forecast chart has been created covering a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to be implemented around the same time. The introduction of 5G is expected to occur at different times starting from 2019, as indicated by the beginning of the red segment on the chart.

This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has been recognized for its expertise in various technology sectors over the past 21 years. They specialize in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and are now expanding into the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.

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