Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations from 2024 to 2040. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, especially with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have raised concerns about avoiding similar complications when it comes time to sunset 4G in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly made the decision to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any external pressure to keep old technologies, telecommunications companies were able to reduce costs by phasing out these networks, freeing up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the early generations of mobile networks were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in use in certain markets for over 40 years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique circumstances that determine the longevity of technology, which is not always tied to economic factors or revenue generated.

Many operators struggle with low profits from 2G and 3G technologies, and face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated systems and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not legally required to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a large number of customers by discontinuing them.

This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generations of cellular technology to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner. This can be achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN technology. These solutions will be further explored in the later sections of this report.

Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times between 2G and 3G networks, and this trend is likely to continue with 4G in the 2030s. However, this difference is expected to be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once the newest RAN technology has been fully implemented.

In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to a new generation.

Certain telecommunication companies are suggesting a shift in approach with the development of 6G, moving towards a more natural and gradual process of becoming outdated. This change aims to avoid the disruptions and challenges often seen with the transition from 2G to newer technologies.

In order to predict the timeline for the sunset of older technologies like 2G and 3G, as well as the beginning of the end for 4G networks, a forecast chart has been created covering a span of 30 years from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services, with 4G also starting to become more prevalent. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment on the chart, which began to roll out at different times starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:

Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become known for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and recently, the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative technology documents.

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