Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunsetting

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The shutdown of 2G networks has caused issues, prompting concerns about avoiding similar mistakes when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in the next decade.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly chose to deactivate 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many legacy applications or users relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older generations of networks running, operators were able to reduce costs by discontinuing them and free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the first generation of mobile networks quickly became obsolete due to the demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, the second generation has continued to be used in certain markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G networks can be attributed to a variety of factors in different markets, rather than just economic factors or average revenue per user.

Typically, 2G and 3G networks are not very profitable for telecom operators. They often face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not always obligated to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

As a result of this factor, there have been advancements in technology that allow older generation networks to coexist with 4G and 5G in a more cost-effective manner. This is achieved through sharing of base stations or spectrum, and in some cases, utilizing Open RAN. These solutions will be explored in more detail later in this report.

The research we conducted indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is projected to also occur with 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition is expected to be less drastic as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once complete coverage with the newest RAN technology is achieved.

In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become frustrated with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain telecommunication companies are advocating for a shift in approach with the introduction of 6G technology. They propose a more natural and gradual evolution of technology, allowing for obsolescence to happen without the disruptions typically seen during the transition from 2G to newer technologies.

In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created that spans from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G being introduced around the same time. The chart also shows the launch of 5G at different times starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:

For the past 21 years, Rethink Technology Research has become a respected analyst firm known for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and Internet of Things. Recently, they have also started focusing on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative white papers on technology.

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