Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Transition
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the continued use of 3G and 2G for older applications and processes. There are concerns about the complications that arose from shutting down 2G networks, prompting calls to avoid similar mistakes when it's time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G technology in 2009, some countries quickly decided to phase out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older generations of networks operational, operators were able to save on support and maintenance costs by discontinuing them. This also allowed for the allocation of valuable spectrum for the advancement of 4G and eventually 5G technologies.
While the first generation of mobile networks quickly became obsolete due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation has remained in use in certain markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This demonstrates how different markets have unique situations that may not always be tied to their economic status or average revenue per user.
2G and 3G technology tend to bring in less revenue, causing operators to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated technologies running or to shut them down. While they are not always contractually obligated to provide these services, operators are hesitant to abandon a large number of consumers or business customers.
This trend has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generation networks to operate alongside 4G and 5G more efficiently and affordably by sharing base stations or spectrum. Open RAN technology is sometimes utilized to facilitate this coexistence. More details on these packages are covered later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G, and it appears that this trend will also be seen for 4G in the 2030s. However, the impact on 4G will be less significant due to efforts being made to phase out older generations once full coverage has been achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10 year cycle of upgrading cellular services to a new generation.
Several operators are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G, promoting a more gradual and natural evolution that reduces the disruptive effects often seen with the phasing out of 2G technology.
In order to account for the different sunset dates and the upcoming closures of 4G networks, our sunset forecast chart covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. Most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services by 2011, with 4G networks starting to emerge around the same time. The introduction of 5G is indicated by the beginning of the red segment, with launches expected to occur at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm with a 21-year history of expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently started focusing on the energy market as well. The RAN Research team within the firm specializes in wireless research, creating market predictions and technology reports.
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