Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Transition
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G networks. There are concerns about potential complications when shutting down 2G networks, leading to calls for better planning and preparation for future 4G sunsets in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies active, telecom operators were able to reduce expenses by phasing out these networks, freeing up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While the initial versions of 1G were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in certain markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G differs across markets, and this is not always linked to economic factors or the average revenue per user.
In reality, 2G and 3G networks are typically not very profitable, and many telecommunication companies struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated technologies running or shut them down due to the potential backlash. While operators may not be legally obligated to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This situation has caused the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to function alongside 4G and 5G networks in a more affordable manner, by sharing base stations or spectrum. Open RAN technology is sometimes used to facilitate this integration. More details on these solutions will be provided in later sections of the report.
The research we conducted revealed a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, a trend that is expected to continue with 4G in the 2030s. However, this transition is expected to be less pronounced due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain operators are advocating for a shift in approach with the introduction of 6G, aiming for a smoother and more gradual process of obsolescence that doesn't create the disruptions typically seen with the discontinuation of 2G networks.
In order to predict when sunset dates for different generations of mobile networks will occur, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The chart also shows the introduction of 5G, which began at different times starting in 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst company that specializes in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and recently, the energy sector. Within the company, RAN Research focuses on wireless research, creating market predictions and technology reports.
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