Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Transition

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations from 2024 to 2040. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many still rely on outdated 3G and 2G technologies for legacy applications. The difficulties experienced during the shutdown of 2G networks have highlighted the importance of avoiding similar mistakes when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in the next decade.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, some countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks if they didn't have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to reduce costs by discontinuing support and maintenance for 2G and 3G, allowing them to allocate more spectrum for 4G and eventually 5G networks.

While the first generation of mobile technology quickly became outdated due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation has remained in use in certain markets for over forty years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not always dependent on economic factors or the revenue generated by average revenue per user (ARPU) in those markets.

2G and 3G networks are typically not very profitable, and operators often struggle with the decision of whether to keep these older technologies running or to shut them down. While they may not be legally required to keep providing these services, operators are hesitant to lose a large number of customers by discontinuing them.

As a result of this factor, there have been advancements in packages that allow older generations of cellular technology to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This is achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, facilitated by Open RAN in certain situations. More details on these solutions are provided later in the report.

The research we conducted indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.

In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain operators are advocating for a shift with the introduction of 6G technology, aiming for a more seamless and gradual evolution in which outdated technology is phased out without the disruptions typically seen during the transition from 2G to newer generations.

In order to predict when 2G, 3G, and 4G networks will be phased out and replaced by 5G, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G being rolled out around the same time. The introduction of 5G began at different times starting in 2019, as indicated by the start of the red segment on the chart.

This information is the most recent prediction found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm with 21 years of experience in being a pioneer in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded into the energy market as well. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates forecasts for the market and writes technology reports.

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