Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Sunsetting Cellular Technology Generations
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for retiring older cellular technology generations. Network sunsetting is a major concern in the mobile industry due to the ongoing use of 3G and 2G for older applications and processes. The challenges faced during the shutdown of 2G networks have highlighted the importance of learning from past mistakes to ensure a smoother transition when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G technology in 2009, some countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older generations of networks, operators were able to save costs by discontinuing support and maintenance for them, and also free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While the early versions of 1G were quickly replaced due to demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in certain markets for over 40 years since its inception in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is influenced by different factors in each market, which are not necessarily linked to economic conditions or generated revenue from customers.
Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked to lower profits, leading many service providers to struggle with the decision of whether to maintain these outdated technologies or risk the consequences of shutting them down. While operators may not be legally required to keep offering these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This factor has resulted in the creation of packages that make it more affordable for older G technologies to coexist with 4G and 5G by sharing base stations or spectrum. Open RAN technology is sometimes used to facilitate this coexistence. More details on these packages will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that sunset times for 2G and 3G vary widely, and this trend may continue for 4G in the 2030s. However, the transition may not be as significant as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In some markets, the gradual process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain telecommunications companies are suggesting that the transition to 6G should involve a more gradual and natural evolution, allowing for obsolescence to happen without the sudden disruptions seen with the phase-out of 2G technology.
In order to predict when older generations of mobile technology will be phased out and newer ones will be introduced, a forecast chart has been created for a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G technology starting to emerge. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of the red segment on the chart, with different operators launching it at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has become a leading authority in the fields of 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative technology reports.
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