Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Sunsetting Cellular Technology Generations

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have sparked concerns about potential complications when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, some countries quickly decided to shut down their 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations running, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed for more spectrum to be utilized for 4G and eventually 5G networks.

While the early versions of 1G were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G in certain markets is not always dependent on economic factors or revenue generated.

It is commonly known that 2G and 3G networks often do not generate high revenues for operators. As a result, many operators face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these older technologies and the potential consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not always required by contracts to keep offering these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

As a result of this factor, there have been advancements in packages that allow older network technologies to coexist with 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner. This can be achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, and in some cases, utilizing Open RAN technology. More details on these advancements will be discussed later in the report.

The research we conducted indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In some markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G, moving towards a more gradual and natural progression that avoids the sudden disruptions seen with the phasing out of 2G technology.

In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G becoming more prevalent around the same time. The introduction of 5G is shown by the start of the red segment, which will occur at different times starting from 2019.

This forecast is the most recent addition to the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a company of analysts that has become well-known in the past 21 years for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently started focusing on the energy market as well. Within the company, RAN Research is a team dedicated to researching wireless technology, creating predictions for the market and informative white papers on technology.

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