Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Sunsetting Cellular Technology Generations

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The shutdown of 2G networks has caused complications, prompting calls to avoid similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in the next decade.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, a number of countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep old technologies, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing out these networks. This also allowed for more spectrum to be allocated to newer technologies like 4G and eventually 5G.

While the earlier versions of 1G were quickly replaced with digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over forty years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not solely determined by economic factors or average revenue per user.

In reality, older generations of mobile technology like 2G and 3G often do not bring in much revenue for operators. This puts operators in a difficult position as they have to decide between the costs of maintaining these outdated technologies and the potential consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not always required by contracts to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers if they were to discontinue them.

This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to work alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This can be achieved through the sharing of base stations or frequency bands, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details on these solutions will be provided in the following sections of this report.

Our research indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar pattern may occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition may be less drastic due to efforts being made to phase out older generations once full coverage has been achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G technology. They propose a more organic process where outdated technology is phased out gradually and smoothly, avoiding the disruptions that occurred during the transition from 2G to newer generations.

In order to predict the sunset dates for older mobile technologies like 2G, 3G, and 4G, a forecast chart has been created covering the years 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most mobile operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with the introduction of 4G not far behind. The chart also shows the anticipated launch of 5G starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a company that has built a strong reputation in the past 21 years as a leading authority in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and they are now focusing on the energy sector. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative white papers on technology.

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