Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Sunsetting Cellular Technology Generations

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Sunsetting network technology has become a major concern for the mobile industry as many still rely on outdated 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The challenges and issues faced during the shutdown of 2G networks have prompted calls to prevent similar mistakes during the eventual sunset of 4G, expected to happen in about ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, network operators were able to save money by phasing out these networks and free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the first generation of mobile technology quickly disappeared with the demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, the second generation has continued to exist in certain markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique situations that do not always correlate with economic factors or revenue generated.

Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are often linked to lower profits, leading many service providers to face a dilemma. They must decide between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the potential consequences of discontinuing them. While operators may not be legally required to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a large number of customers by shutting them down.

This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generations of mobile networks to coexist more efficiently with 4G and 5G, by sharing base stations or spectrum. Open RAN technology is sometimes used to facilitate this coexistence. More details about these solutions will be discussed later in this report.

The research we conducted revealed that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it is expected to also occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation is likely to be less pronounced due to efforts to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused dissatisfaction among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.

Certain operators are suggesting a different approach for the transition to 6G, aiming for a more gradual and natural evolution to prevent the disruptions that occurred during the phase-out of 2G networks.

In order to account for the different dates when sunset dates may occur and to prepare for the first closures of 4G networks, our sunset forecast chart covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services, with the emergence of 4G around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the bright red segment, which began at different times from 2019 onwards.

This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:

Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become well-known in the industry for its expertise in 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now, the energy sector. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.

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