Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Transition

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations from 2024 to 2040. The mobile industry is facing challenges related to network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G. The shutdown of 2G networks has highlighted complications that need to be addressed to avoid similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in the next decade.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users who relied on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older technologies, telecom operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out these networks and reallocating spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the early generations of mobile technology quickly became obsolete due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has continued to be used in certain markets for over 40 years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This is due to the different circumstances and needs of each market, which are not always determined by economic factors or average revenue per user.

Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked to lower profits, leading many operators to face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the potential consequences of shutting them down. While some operators are not bound by contracts to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to alienate a significant portion of their consumers or business clients.

This factor has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older G technologies to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more cost-effective way. This is achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, often with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details about these packages will be discussed later in the report.

Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times between 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks in the 2030s. However, the differences in sunset times for 4G are expected to be less pronounced because steps are being taken to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the most up-to-date RAN technology.

In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10 year cycle of upgrading cellular services.

Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a more gradual approach to technological advancements with the introduction of 6G, in order to allow for a smoother transition and avoid the disruptions often seen during the phase-out of older technologies like 2G.

In order to predict the sunset dates for different generations of mobile networks and prepare for the shutdown of 4G, our forecast chart covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G becoming more prominent at that time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment on the chart, with different launch dates starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst firm with a long history of expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology reports.

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