Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Sunsetting Cellular Technology Generations
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many are still relying on 3G and 2G for older applications and processes. There have been difficulties with shutting down 2G networks, prompting a need to learn from past mistakes and prepare for the eventual sunsetting of 4G networks in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to phase out 2G and 3G networks, particularly if there were not many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any significant pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the old networks, operators were able to reduce support and maintenance expenses by discontinuing them. This also allowed for the allocation of spectrum to newer technologies like 4G and eventually 5G.
While the first generation of mobile networks quickly transitioned to digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G networks is not always determined by economic factors or average revenue per user (ARPU).
In general, 2G and 3G networks are known for generating low profits, leading many companies to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these older technologies running or shut them down. While operators may not be legally required to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to risk losing a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This factor has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generations of technology to coexist more affordably with 4G and 5G by leveraging the sharing of base stations or spectrum, with the assistance of Open RAN in certain instances. More details about these solutions will be discussed later in this report.
Our research indicates that there is a varied range of sunset times for 2G and 3G, and it seems that this trend will continue for 4G in the 2030s. However, the transition may be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage with the latest RAN technology is achieved.
In certain markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become dissatisfied with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Several telecommunication companies are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G technology, preferring a more gradual and natural evolution that avoids the disruptions seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.
In order to predict the sunset dates for different mobile network generations and prepare for the discontinuation of 4G, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. Most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services by 2011, with the emergence of 4G around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the introduction of 5G at different points starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that specializes in analyzing and providing insights on various technologies such as 5G, wireless communication, entertainment, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded their focus to include the energy marketplace. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology reports.
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