Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunsetting

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G. There have been issues with shutting down 2G networks, prompting calls to avoid similar mistakes when phasing out 4G in the future.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if there weren't many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators, telecom operators were able to save money by phasing out these older technologies, allowing them to focus on improving 4G and 5G networks and making more efficient use of available spectrum.

While the first generation of mobile technology was quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS capabilities, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G in certain markets is not always tied to economic factors or revenue generated.

2G and 3G networks are typically not very profitable, leading many telecommunications companies to struggle with the decision of whether to keep them running or shut them down. While there may not be any legal obligations to maintain these older technologies, companies are hesitant to alienate a large portion of their customer base by discontinuing them.

This has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older G technologies to coexist more efficiently and at a lower cost with 4G and 5G. This is achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN. Further details on these packages are discussed later in the report.

The research we conducted indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G, which is expected to also occur for 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation will be less prominent as steps are being taken to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In certain markets, the gradual phasing out of 2G and 3G technologies has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain telecommunication companies are pushing for a different approach to the development of 6G technology, advocating for a more gradual and natural process of obsolescence. They believe this will prevent the disruptions that have been seen with the phase-out of 2G technology.

In order to account for the wide range of sunset dates and prepare for the initial shutdown of 4G networks, our forecast chart extends over a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services, with the emergence of 4G around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment, occurring at different points from 2019 onwards.

This is the most up-to-date prediction found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst company with a strong reputation in the technology industry, particularly in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded into the energy sector. RAN Research is their team focused on wireless research, creating market predictions and informational documents on technology trends.

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