Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generation Sunsetting
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G technology. The difficulties experienced during the shutdown of 2G networks have highlighted the need to avoid similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks if they didn't have a lot of older applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations, telecom operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out, and also free up spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While 1G technologies were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in certain markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have different circumstances that can affect the longevity of certain technologies, which may not always be related to economic status or revenue generated.
In general, 2G and 3G networks are not very profitable for telecom operators, and many are facing a dilemma between keeping these older technologies running at a cost or shutting them down and dealing with the consequences. While operators are not always required to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a large number of customers by discontinuing them.
This aspect has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older technologies like 2G to operate alongside newer ones like 4G and 5G in a more efficient and cost-effective manner. This is achieved through practices such as sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes utilizing Open RAN technology. More details about these solutions will be explored in later sections of the report.
The research we conducted revealed a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, a trend that is expected to also occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition is expected to be less pronounced because steps are being taken to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the most advanced RAN technology available.
In some markets, the gradual phasing out of 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a shift in approach with the introduction of 6G technology. They prefer a more seamless and gradual transition to newer technologies, as opposed to the abrupt and disruptive changes seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.
In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The introduction of 5G is expected to occur at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company with a 21-year history that is known for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment and streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded into the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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