Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The plan for phasing out older cellular technology generations, known as the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040, is being developed to address the challenges of network sunsetting in the mobile industry. The industry currently relies heavily on 3G and 2G for legacy applications and processes, which has made shutting down these networks complicated. Lessons learned from the 2G shutdowns are being used to ensure that similar issues are avoided when it comes time to phase out 4G in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue their 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations, telecom operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed for more spectrum to be allocated to newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While the early versions of 1G were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G technology has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the use of 2G technology has persisted in certain markets, with reasons varying and not always directly related to economic factors or revenue generated per user.
Certainly, 2G and 3G technologies are usually linked to minimal profits, leading many operators to face the dilemma of either maintaining these outdated systems at a high cost or dealing with the consequences of shutting them down. While operators may not have a contractual obligation to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of consumers or business clients by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older G technologies to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This is achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, often with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details about these packages will be discussed later in the report.
The research we conducted demonstrates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this shift is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain telecommunications companies are suggesting a different approach for the development of 6G, advocating for a more gradual transition to new technology to avoid the disruptions that occurred during the transition from 2G to newer technologies.
In order to predict when old mobile network technologies will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created covering a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most mobile operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The introduction of 5G began in different times starting from 2019, as indicated by the start of the red segment on the chart.
This is the most up-to-date prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst firm with a 21-year track record of expertise in various technology sectors, including 5G, wireless, entertainment, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now energy marketplace. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology white papers.
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