Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generation Sunsetting

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations from 2024 to 2040. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have highlighted the importance of avoiding similar complications when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in the next decade.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, some countries quickly decided to phase out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many older applications or users still relying on them. Without any pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by shutting them down. This also allowed them to free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and eventually 5G.

While the first generation of mobile networks quickly transitioned to digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has managed to remain in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not always dependent on economic factors or average revenue per user.

Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked to lower profits, causing many telecommunications companies to struggle with the dilemma of either maintaining these outdated technologies and facing financial burdens or shutting them down and potentially damaging their reputation. Although operators are not bound by contracts to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to disconnect a significant number of consumers or business clients.

Due to this factor, there have been advancements in packages that allow older generation cellular networks to coexist with newer 4G and 5G networks in a more affordable manner. This is achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, with the assistance of Open RAN technology in certain situations. More details on these packages will be discussed later in the report.

The research we conducted indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older technologies once full coverage is achieved with the most up-to-date RAN technology.

In some markets, the gradual phasing out of 2G and 3G networks has led to operators feeling disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle for upgrading cellular services.

Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G, moving towards a more gradual and natural process of technology becoming outdated, rather than the sudden changes seen with the phase-out of 2G networks.

In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created that covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to emerge around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of a new red segment on the chart, which began at different times starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst company that has become a respected authority in various areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment and streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now, the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative technology reports.

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