Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024 to 2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly due to the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The shutdown of 2G networks has caused complications, prompting calls to avoid similar issues when the time comes to phase out 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many users relying on them or legacy applications that needed to be supported. Without external pressure to keep older generations of networks running, operators were able to save costs by discontinuing them and reallocating spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While 1G technologies were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G technology has remained in some markets for over 40 years since it was first launched in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not always tied to the economic status or average revenue per user (ARPU) of a market.
In reality, 2G and 3G networks are usually not very profitable, and many telecommunications companies face a dilemma when it comes to deciding whether to keep these outdated technologies running or to shut them down. While there may not be any contractual obligations to maintain these services, operators are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers if they were to discontinue them.
This situation has caused the creation of packages that allow older G technologies to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This is achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details on these packages will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disenchanted with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G technology. They believe that a more gradual and natural progression would be better, allowing for older technologies to phase out without causing the disruptions seen with the transition from 2G networks.
In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G becoming more prevalent around that time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment on the chart, with different operators launching it at various times starting from 2019.
This information is the most up-to-date prediction found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
For the past 21 years, Rethink Technology Research has built a reputation as a leading expert in 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded into the energy marketplace. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology reports.
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