Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Transition

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G technologies. There have been difficulties with shutting down 2G networks, prompting calls to avoid similar issues when 4G networks are eventually phased out in about ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without external pressure to keep older technologies, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing out these networks, and also free up valuable spectrum for newer generations like 4G and 5G.

While the first generation of mobile phone technology quickly disappeared in favor of digital voice and SMS messaging, the second generation has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G in different markets is not always determined by economic factors or average revenue per user.

In reality, 2G and 3G technologies usually generate limited profits, causing some operators to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated systems running or shut them down. While there may not be contractual obligations to maintain these services, operators are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

This trend has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older network generations to operate alongside 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner. This is achieved through the sharing of infrastructure like base stations or frequency bands, often leveraging Open RAN technology. Specific examples of these solutions are explored in later sections of the report.

Our research indicates that there is a varied range of sunset times for 2G and 3G, and this trend is expected to continue for 4G in the 2030s. However, the transition for 4G will be less significant as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In some markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has led to operators feeling dissatisfied with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain telecommunications companies are pushing for a different approach for the transition to 6G, wanting a more gradual and natural evolution that doesn't result in the sudden disruptions seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.

In order to predict the sunset dates for various generations of mobile networks, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G being introduced around the same time. The chart also shows the introduction of 5G starting from 2019 onwards.

This prediction is the most recent one in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:

Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become a respected authority in various tech fields such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment and streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now energy markets over the course of 21 years. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative technology documents.

Access the complete overview of the report by downloading the full executive summary.

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