Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Transition

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024 to 2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older generations of cellular technology. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many still rely on 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The complications of shutting down 2G have raised concerns about avoiding similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, some countries quickly decided to phase out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older generations of technology, operators were able to reduce support and maintenance expenses by discontinuing them. This also allowed for the allocation of valuable spectrum for the advancement of 4G and 5G networks.

While early generations of mobile technology quickly faded away in favor of digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has managed to survive in certain markets for over forty years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This longevity is due to the unique conditions and needs of each market, which are not always determined by economic factors or revenue generated.

In reality, 2G and 3G networks are often linked to lower profits, leading many telecommunications companies to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated technologies running or shut them down. While there may not be a contractual obligation to maintain these services, operators are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

Because of this factor, there are now packages available that allow older generation technologies to operate alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN. Details of some of these packages will be discussed later in the report.

The research we conducted demonstrates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to also occur for 4G in the 2030s. However, this transition will be less drastic due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the most current RAN technology.

In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.

Certain telecommunication companies are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G technology. They believe in a more natural and gradual process of becoming obsolete, as opposed to the sudden and disruptive transitions seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.

In order to account for the wide range of sunset dates and prepare for the initial shutdowns of 4G networks, our forecast chart for sunsets extends over a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. Most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services by 2011, with the emergence of 4G around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the rollout of 5G at different points starting in 2019.

This is the most current prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which has been updated to include:

Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst firm with a 21-year history of expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment and streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded their focus to include the energy marketplace. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology white papers.

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