Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out outdated cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G. The difficulties experienced during the shutdown of 2G networks have highlighted the need to avoid similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many older applications or users still relying on them. Without any external pressure to keep the older generations running, telecommunication companies were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out, and also free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the early generations of mobile networks quickly disappeared as demand for digital voice and SMS messaging grew, 2G has remained in certain markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique circumstances that may not always be tied to their economic status or average revenue per user.

It is commonly known that 2G and 3G technologies do not bring in high profits for operators. Many operators face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the consequences of shutting them down, such as damage to their reputation. While operators are not always obligated to keep offering these services, they are hesitant to lose a large number of customers by discontinuing them.

This situation has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generation networks to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This is achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details about these packages will be discussed later in this report.

Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and likely 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.

In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.

Certain telecommunication companies are suggesting a shift in approach for the development of 6G technology. They advocate for a more seamless and gradual transition to newer technology, in contrast to the abrupt changes seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.

In order to predict the sunset dates for different generations of mobile networks and prepare for the first shutdowns of 4G, our forecast chart covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. Most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services by 2011, with the rollout of 4G starting around that time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of the red segment, which occurred at different times starting from 2019.

This represents the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently comprises:

Rethink Technology Research is a reputable analyst firm known for its expertise in various areas including 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now, the energy sector. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology reports.

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