Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024 to 2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have raised concerns about the process for eventually sunsetting 4G in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by discontinuing them. This also allowed for the allocation of valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While 1G technologies were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. The longevity of 2G in certain markets is due to a variety of factors, which are not always tied to economic conditions or revenue generated.
It is true that 2G and 3G technologies usually bring in lower profits, causing many operators to struggle with the decision of whether to continue supporting these outdated systems. While operators may not be legally bound to keep these services running, they are hesitant to disconnect a significant number of customers or business clients.
This situation has prompted the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to operate alongside 4G and 5G more efficiently and economically. This is achieved through base station or spectrum sharing, sometimes utilizing Open RAN technology. More details on these solutions will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and this trend is expected to continue for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, the extent of this variation is likely to be less due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
We will talk about how the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks in certain markets has caused dissatisfaction among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to a new generation.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G, preferring a more organic evolution that allows for obsolete technologies to phase out gradually and without the disruptive impact experienced during the 2G sunset.
In order to predict the gradual phasing out of older technologies like 2G, 3G, and 4G, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. Most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services by 2011, with 4G starting to become more prevalent around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of a new segment on the chart, with launches occurring at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that has built a reputation as a leading authority in 5G technology, various wireless technologies, the entertainment industry, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and is now focusing on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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